COVID-19 Cuts Global Maritime Trade, Transforms Industry

The Pandemic Has Sent Shockwaves Through Global Maritime Transport And Laid The Foundations For A Transformed Industry And Associated Supply Chains. Unctad Expects A Return To Growth In 2021.

Global maritime trade will plunge by 4.1% in 2020 due to the unprecedented disruption caused by COVID-19, UNCTAD estimates in its Review of Maritime Transport 2020, released on 12 November.

The report warns that new waves of the pandemic that further disrupt supply chains and economies might cause a steeper decline. The pandemic has sent shockwaves through supply chains, shipping networks and ports, leading to plummeting cargo volumes and foiling growth prospects, it says.

According to the report, the short-term outlook for maritime trade is grim. Predicting the pandemic’s longer-term impact as well as the timing and scale of the industry’s recovery is fraught with uncertainty.

“The global shipping industry will be at the forefront of efforts towards a sustainable recovery, as a vital enabler of the smooth functioning of international supply chains,” UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi said. “The industry must be a key stakeholder helping adapt ‘just-in-time efficiency’ logistics to ‘just-in-case’ preparedness,” he added.

UNCTAD expects maritime trade growth to return to a positive territory and expand by 4.8% in 2021, assuming world economic output recovers. But it highlights the need for the maritime transport industry to brace for change and be well prepared for a transformed COVID-19 world.

Figure 1: Development of international maritime trade and global output, 2006–2020

Responses to the pandemic

At the peak of the crisis, when the contraction of cargo volumes brought an additional challenge to structural market imbalance, the report notes, the container shipping industry adopted more discipline, cutting capacity and reducing costs to maintain profitability instead of market share.

As a result, freight rates remained at stable levels despite the depressed demand. From the perspective of shippers, these strategies meant severe space limitations to transport goods and delays in delivery dates. 

To cope with pandemic-related disruptions, players in the maritime sector adjusted their operations, finances, sanitary and safety protocols as well as working practices and procedures.

In addition, several governments, through their border agencies, port authorities and customs administrations, made reforms to keep trade flowing while keeping people safe.

“Border agents, port workers and customs officials play an essential role in keeping trade moving, helping us to navigate through the crisis,” Dr. Kituyi said. “It will be important to assess the best practices that emerge from their experiences to strengthen trade facilitation in the years to come.”